Minimum temperature to drop considerably by first of January

The State will have to wait close to first week of January to greet the typical Kerala model wintry mornings, although the night time minimum temperature has seen a dip for a few days at the beginning of this week. The stage is almost set for the decrease in minimum temperature at night and gradual increase in maximum day temperature with the cessation of rainfall.

However, a light spell of rain for two days is anticipated by the first of next week. This is due to the possible interaction of a high-amplitude easterly wave with a westerly trough, which is expected to cause light rains for two days and thunderstorm development, said Neetha K. Gopal, director, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Thiruvananthapuram. Once the spells are over, the typical Kerala winter can be experienced in the State, especially in high-range areas.  

The Bay of Bengal is likely to be calm once the existing weather system in the Bay disappears, bringing stability to the atmosphere. The instability in the atmosphere triggers the precipitations. Although below-normal temperature is generally observed during the winter season in La Niña years, all the global models are now predicting above normal maximum day temperature this year due to the delay in the formation of La Niña.

In the coastal districts of Kerala, there would not be any major drop in the minimum temperature due to the maritime influence, which keeps the temperature of coastal Kerala at an optimum value. “As we move away from the coast, maritime influence declines, and as we move up, temperature will decrease, ideally 6.5°C per km,” said experts and added that the case of Munnar, where temperature drops to zero degree centigrade in the peak winter season, has to be studied in depth.

Also in Kerala, this is the time of the year when the maximum day temperature would be above the maximum day temperature of north India, where the influence of western disturbances brings chilly weather. Due to the effect of this chilly weather, the maximum day temperature would be below the value of Kerala.