Voters wait in queues to cast votes at a polling station during the second and final phase of Jharkhand Assembly elections.
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The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-led INDIA bloc had won the Scheduled Tribes-reserved seats in Jharkhand in the Lok Sabha election decisively but lost the rest of the nine out of the 14 constituencies in the State. Clearly, to retain the Assembly, it is striving to increase its support beyond just tribal voters. For the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA, its vice-versa.
In the Assembly, 28 seats are reserved for Scheduled Tribes, while 44 are open for general competition. Nine seats are reserved for Scheduled Castes. In this analysis, past votes are recalculated based on the alliances formed for the 2024 Assembly election: the JMM-led alliance, which includes the Congress, CPI(ML)(L), and RJD, and the NDA alliance, comprising the BJP, AJSU, JD(U) and LJP (RV).
Tables 1A shows the voting patterns among various seat types in the 2024 Parliamentary elections..
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Table 1B shows the voting patterns among various seat types in the 2019 Assembly elections
Table 1C shows the voting patterns among various seat types in the 2014 Assembly elections
The table lists the vote share and the seats/Assembly segments won/led. The JMM-led alliance’s vote share in tribal seats increased marginally from 42% to 43% between the 2014 and 2019 State polls, and further rose to 49.6% in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, which was fought after the arrest of Chief Minister Hemant Soren in a corruption case — he was released on bail later. The vote share secured in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls is the highest the alliance got in the tribal seats even if the comparison is extended to the 2014 and 2019 Parliamentary elections.
However, among non-reserved seats, the JMM-led alliance’s vote share has remained stagnant at around 35%, while that of the NDA has increased from 37% to 42% between the 2014 and 2019 Assembly polls and even higher to 51.5% in the recent Lok Sabha polls. As noted before, the calculations are based on present alliances.
The gap between the voting preferences of ST and non-ST voters has widened over the last three elections. It is to be seen on the results day whether the gap has widened or narrowed in the 2024 State polls.
Also, notably, the JMM-led coalition has shown weakness in the nine seats reserved for Scheduled Castes, failing to win any in the 2014 Assembly election. Even in the 2019 State polls, when the BJP contested without alliance partners, the JMM-led coalition managed to secure only three of these seats. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, they led in none of the segments reserved for SCs.
A region-wise breakdown of past vote shares reveals a more nuanced picture of tribal voting patterns.
Table 2A shows the region-wise vote and seat share of the alliances in the 2024 Parliamentary elections
Table 2B shows the region-wise vote and seat share of the alliances in the 2019 Assembly elections
Table 2C shows the region-wise vote and seat share of the alliances in the 2014 Assembly elections
Among the five regions — Kolhan (14 seats), North Chotanagpur (25), Palamu (9), Santhal Parganas (18), and South Chotanagpur (15) — the first and the last are dominated by seats reserved for STs. In Kolhan 64% of seats are reserved for STs, 73% in South Chotanagpur, and 39% in Santhal Pargana.
In the 2014 Assembly polls, the JMM alliance was weaker in the South Chotanagpur region securing only three seats, which improved to eight seats in the 2019 State polls and to eleven segments in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. In the Kolhan region, the JMM alliance’s vote share has remained stagnant at around 43%, while the NDA has increased its vote share from 37% to 39% between the 2014 and 2019 Assembly polls and even further to 46.6% in the Lok Sabha polls.
Clearly, the Kolhan region is key for NDA if it is planning to secure more tribal seats, while JMM would want a repeat of the 2019 polls in the region.
Source: Lok Dhaba, Chief Electoral Officer of Jharkhand, Election Commission of India
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Published – November 22, 2024 07:02 pm IST