India’s economy has likely entered a cyclical growth slowdown and growth may slip below 6.7% in the face of emerging risks, Nomura economists reckoned, noting that weak urban demand is likely to stay insipid amid high interest rates and moderating wage growth.

“Urban consumption indicators have been softening lately… We believe this weakness in urban demand is likely to continue,” Nomura’s economists Sonal Varma and Aurodeep Nandi said in a note on Monday. They linked this to lower real salary hikes, fading pent-up demand and tight credit conditions.

“We believe India’s economy has entered a cyclical growth slowdown. Coincident and leading growth indicators point to a further moderation in GDP growth and the RBI’s forecast of 7.2% for 2024-25 is overly optimistic, in our view,” they said. Nomura has projected GDP growth of 6.7% this year and 6.8% in 2025-26, but the note said downside risks to this forecast are rising.

Companies are scaling down their salary outlays, the research note pointed out. “When deflated by the urban inflation, real salary and wage expenditure growth of listed non-financial corporates – a proxy for real urban wages – has moderated to 0.8% year-on-year in Q2 FY25 from 1.2% in Q1 FY25, and is down from 2.5% in FY24 and 10.8% in FY23. This likely reflects a mix of weaker nominal salary growth and a leaner workforce,” they concluded.

“Additionally, the post-pandemic surge in pent-up demand has faded, monetary policy is tight and the RBI’s macroprudential crackdown on unsecured, frothy credit is being reflected in the slowdown in personal loans and lending growth by non-banking finance companies,” the economists averred, following up on an October 17 report which said ‘the growth glass looks half empty’ for India.

Image used for representational purposes. File

The rupee opened on a flat note and depreciated 1 paisa to 84.08 against the U.S. dollar in initial deals on Tuesday (October 29, 2024), as persistent foreign fund outflows and the strength of the American currency in the overseas market dented investor sentiments.

Forex traders said a muted trend in domestic equities and strong dollar weighed on the local unit, while easing crude oil prices and any intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may also support the local currency at lower levels.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.08 against the greenback. In the initial trade, it touched 84.07.

On Monday (October 28, 2024), the rupee settled 1 paisa higher at 84.07 against the U.S. dollar.

The local currency touched its lowest closing level of 84.10 against the dollar on October 11.

According to traders, the rupee remains under intense pressure, mainly due to persistent foreign fund outflows.

“The Indian rupee remained in a range of 2 paise on Monday (October 28, 2024) and is expected to remain in the same small range as foreign portfolio investors continue to buy dollars,” said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.02% higher at 104.33.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was marginally up by 0.01% to $71.43 per barrel in futures trade.

“Brent oil lost 6% and was at $71.27 per barrel though U.S. had plans to purchase oil for its strategic reserves, while investors focussed the developments in the Middle East where a temporary lull could be in the offing before hostilities begin again,” Bhansali said.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex declined 387.61 points, or 0.48%, to 79,617.43 points. The Nifty fell 120.60 points, or 0.5%, to 24,218.55 points.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Monday (October 28, 2024), as they offloaded shares worth ₹3,228.08 crore, according to exchange data.

Image used for representative purpose only.
| Photo Credit: PTI

The West Singhbhum district administration has ensured home voting for many elderly voters in assembly elections in Jharkhand, officials said on Sunday (November 10, 2024).

Elections to the 81-member assembly are scheduled on November 13 and 20. Five seats falling in the district — Chaibasa, Majhgaon, Jagannathpur, Manoharpur and Chakradharpur — will go to polls in the second phase.

Home voting, however, was held on November 3, 4, 9 and is being conducted on Sunday as well.

Also Read | In battleground Seraikella, turncoats, hurt sentiments, and a cry for jobs

“To ensure accessibility and inclusiveness, the Election Commission has provided facilities of home voting for senior citizens aged above 85 years, and persons with disabilities (PwDs),” West Singhbhum Deputy Commissioner and District Election Officer Kuldeep Chaudhary told PTI.

“There are 15,904 such voters, including 3,009 voters above the age of 85 years in the five assembly constituencies, and many opted for home voting during surveys by the booth level officials. These include 101-year-old Bela Sen of Chaibasa and 100-year-old Imamum Bibi of Majhgaon,” he added.

Chakradharpur assembly segment has a total of 56 voters aged over 85 years and 47 PwD voters.

“A total of 103 voters opted for the facility of postal ballot through a survey conducted by BLOs across all 1,284 polling stations in these five assembly constituencies.

“Home voting for these electors was conducted on November 3 and 4 in which a total of 100 voters cast their votes through postal ballot. The second round of home voting was conducted on November 9 which will continue today,” the DC said.

Like Bela Sen, born on October 24, 1923, who is frail and unable to navigate the journey to the polling booth, the facility of home voting has come as a boon for such voters.

Mr. Chaudhary personally visited many of these voters with polling materials.

Also Read | Ajoy Kumar, Congress candidate and former IPS officer, centers his campaign on his past performance

“We are committed to ensuring that no voter is left out in this largest democratic exercise in the world,” Mr. Chaudhary said.

Among those who have exercised their franchise under the home voting initiative include 85-year-old Suleshwar Pan of Tonto, 89-year-old Buni Hembrom of Angarpada, 90-year-old Jaspin Bodra of Karaikela, 77-year-old Namsi Devi of Tengrai and 26-year-old Sonali Sharma, a person with disability.

More than 900 centenarians, including 533 women, are eligible to exercise their franchise in 43 assembly constituencies going to polls in the first phase of the elections on November 13.

Representative image
| Photo Credit: AFP

Gunmen attacked a bar in central Mexican city of Queretaro killing 10 people on Saturday (November 10, 2024), a local security official said.

The attackers opened fire inside the Los Cantaritos bar in the city’s historic district, according to the head of Queretaro’s public security department Juan Luis Ferrusca.

“Emergency services arrived at the scene and confirmed that at least four people armed with long weapons had arrived on board a pickup truck,” he said in a video posted on social media.

“Inside, 10 people were reported dead and at least seven more were injured so far,” he added.

One suspect was detained and the vehicle used in the attack was found abandoned and set on fire, Ferrusca said.

Queretaro is considered one of the safer cities in Mexico, where spiraling violence, much of it linked to drug trafficking and gangs, has seen more than 450,000 people murdered in since 2006.

Output levels in India’s eight core sectors, which account for about 40% of the country’s industrial production, continued to drag in September.
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

Output levels in India’s eight core sectors, which account for about 40% of the country’s industrial production, continued to drag in September with the Index of Core Industries (ICI) falling to a ten-month low of 154.8. That is 0.83% below the index’s August levels.

On a year-on-year basis, however, core industries’ output recorded a 2% uptick, reflecting a moderate but positive turnaround from August, when the index had contracted 1.6%, the first such shrinkage in 36 months.

Steel down, cement up

Fortunes were mixed for the two key construction-related sectors, with steel output growth hitting a 33-month nadir of 1.5% in September, while cement production rose 7.1%, the fastest in six months.

Noting that steel output may have got dented by the automobile sector’s sales woes, Bank of Baroda chief economist Madan Sabnavis reckoned that industrial output in September may remain weak, with a growth rate of under 1%.

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) had contracted marginally in August, the first such occasion since October 2022. The National Statistical Office will release September’s IIP numbers on November 12.

Acuité Ratings chief economist Suman Chowdhury, who expects core sectors to grow 4.5% to 5% through 2024-25, compared to 7.6% last year, said this will also drag drown industrial output growth to 5%. The economic indicators for the second quarter have increased the downside risks to their 7% growth projection for the year, he noted.

Power, oil and gas

Five of the eight infrastructure sectors recorded year-on-year growth, compared to just two sectors in August. However, just three sectors’ production levels were also higher than August: coal (up 9.8%), cement (0.85%), and refinery products, which recorded a fractional 0.07% uptick sequentially.

Electricity generation contracted for the second month in a row, albeit with a milder shrinkage of 0.5% from September 2023. However, this was 3.5% below August’s generation level, perhaps linked to the late withdrawal of the monsoon with above normal rains in September.

Crude oil production contracted for the fifth successive month, with the shrinkage deepening to 3.9%, while natural gas declined 1.3%, the third straight month of contraction. Absolute output levels in both these sectors were at a three-month low.

Fertilizer production growth hit a four-month low of 1.9%, with volumes the lowest since this July. Mr. Sabnavis linked this to adequate stocks and the late monsoon pushing Rabi sowing forward.

ICRA chief economist Aditi Nayar reckoned that industrial output may have grown in the range of 3% to 5% in September, thanks to narrower contractions in electricity and mining output, higher growth in GST e-way bills, as well as a favourable base from last year.

File picture of Bibek Debroy, chairman, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minster
| Photo Credit: PTI

Noted author and economist Bibek Debroy, who had been the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council Chairman since 2017, passed away on Friday (November 1, 2024) at the age of 69.

Mr. Debroy was also a member of the Niti Aayog, which had replaced the erstwhile Planning Commission, till mid-2019, and had wide-ranging interests beyond economics. He was also a Sanskrit scholar who had translated the Bhagavad Gita, the Vedas, the Ramayana and the Mahabharata into English; and was working on a project to translate the Puranas as well that remained incomplete. 

The veteran economist, who had been ailing for a few weeks, had been admitted to the AIIMS emergency around 10 p.m. on Thursday. Hospital sources said he had “subacute intestinal obstruction” and expired at 7 a.m. on Friday. Political leaders across the political spectrum paid lofty tributes to Mr. Debroy, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi Modi condoling his demise by stating that “he left an indelible mark on India’s intellectual landscape”.

“Dr. Bibek Debroy Ji was a towering scholar, well-versed in diverse domains like economics, history, culture, politics, spirituality and more. Through his works, he left an indelible mark on India’s intellectual landscape. Beyond his contributions to public policy, he enjoyed working on our ancient texts, making them accessible to the youth,” wrote Mr. Modi on X.

Congress leader Jairam Ramesh called Mr. Debroy “a man of unusually wide-ranging interests” who was “first and foremost a fine theoretical and empirical economist who worked and wrote on various aspects of the Indian economy”.

President Droupadi Murmu said the country had lost an eminent public intellectual and termed Mr. Debroy’s understanding of India’s social, cultural and economic landscape as “exceptional”.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman noted that Mr. Debroy “profusely participated in policy making”. “His interests, inter alia, were — ancient texts, Vedic and classical Sanskrit, Devi, Railways. He was prolific in translating Sanskrit to English — our epics and puranas. His book Sarama and Her Children showed his uncanny knack in extracting nuggets from our ancient texts. Bibek, you had so much more to do and to complete — for all our sake!” wrote Ms. Sitharaman.

Warm, affable and erudite, Mr. Debroy remained a prolific author and columnist even after joining the Niti Aayog, continuing to shed light on an eclectic variety of issues, including but not restricted to arcane and archaic legislations, and the Indian Railways’ history and operational nuances. In his recent public speeches, Mr. Debroy had mooted the need for the country to expeditiously conduct the population Census that has been overdue for a few years, and to revisit key economic metrics, including the poverty line definition.

Early years and career

After his schooling at Ramakrishna Mission School, Narendrapur, Mr. Debroy had studied at Presidency College, Kolkata, followed by the Delhi School of Economics and Trinity College, Cambridge. Starting with a teaching stint at his alma mater Presidency College, Mr. Debroy had worked at the Gokhale Institute of Economics and Politics in Pune, followed by the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade in the national capital. 

The economist also spent a year with the Department of Economic Affairs in the Finance Ministry in the mid-1990s, but one of his longest serving roles was the directorship of the Rajiv Gandhi Institute for Contemporary Studies (RGICS) between 1997 and 2005.

At RGICS, the think tank affiliated with the Rajiv Gandhi Foundation, a report, steered by Mr. Debroy and published in 2005, had created a flutter in the first year of the Manmohan Singh-led UPA regime by naming Gujarat, then under Chief Minister Narendra Modi, as India’s top State on an index to measure economic freedom. 

This had led to a protracted and heated debate on the Gujarat model of development, and amid unease in the Congress ranks over the report, Mr. Debroy eventually moved on to the Punjab Haryana Delhi Chamber of Commerce and Industry or PHDCCI. A two-year stint at the industry body was followed by a long stint at the Centre for Policy and Research from 2007 till he became part of the Centre’s think tank after Mr. Modi’s government assumed office in 2014.

Mr. Ramesh recalled that Mr. Debroy had a special skill for lucid exposition that would make laypersons easily understand complex economic issues. “Bibek was also a very prolific, and always thought-provoking, commentator in the media on public issues going well beyond economics. More than that, he will be remembered as a genuine Sanskritist of great erudition,” Mr. Ramesh said, pointing to his translations of some important late 19th century essays in Bengali as “noteworthy”. “He will be missed for his scholarship as well for his dry sense of humour,” he summed up.

(With inputs from Bindu Shajan Perappadan)

People walk outside the venue for the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. File
| Photo Credit: AP

As world leaders and climate negotiators converge on Baku for COP29, beginning Monday (November 11, 2024), India is set to bring renewed focus to the urgent need for climate finance, accountability, and protection for vulnerable communities.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will not attend the conference, and Environment Minister Bhupender Yadav may also be absent, with Union Minister of State for Environment, Forest, and Climate Change Kirti Vardhan Singh leading the 19-member delegation instead.

India’s national statement is scheduled for November 18-19.

India’s key priorities at the conference are likely to focus on ensuring accountability of developed nations on climate finance, strengthening resilience for vulnerable communities, and achieving an equitable energy transition, experts anticipate.

Dr. Arunabha Ghosh, CEO of the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), emphasised that COP29 must go beyond promises, pushing developed nations to accelerate their paths to net zero and meet their financial commitments.

“The climate COPs are about raising ambition, enabling action, and, most importantly, holding everyone accountable. While COP28 resulted in many promises, it let developed countries off the hook. COP29 must be about accountability,” said Dr. Ghosh.

“The largest historical emitters must move faster and raise their ambition. Climate finance should be consistent, convenient, catalytic, and credible, and COP29 must ensure it delivers real resources and capacity to protect the most vulnerable,” he said.

This year’s negotiations are anticipated to tackle the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate finance, a critical benchmark that could reach trillions of dollars annually, a figure many developing nations insist is essential to combat climate change effectively.

Ali Mohamed, Kenya’s Climate Change Envoy, reinforced the urgency for a “Finance COP” that prioritises financing without deepening debt burdens for nations already struggling to adapt to climate impacts.

“For Africa, it is important that the final goal agreed in Baku should not worsen our debt situation,” Mr. Mohamed said. “The Framework on Global Climate Resilience needs to translate into real actions that support agriculture, water, health, biodiversity, infrastructure, and human settlements.”

Dr. Frances Colan, Senior Director for International Climate Policy at the Center for American Progress, highlighted the conference’s importance following the re-election of Donald Trump in the U.S., who is anticipated to adopt policies favouring oil and gas expansion.

In a departure from past conferences, India will not host a pavilion at COP29.

This absence also comes as India balances its role as a developing nation with rising energy demands and a focus on economic growth, particularly as the world looks to emerging economies for leadership in reducing emissions.

The release of the Global Carbon Budget on November 13 will provide a detailed assessment of current emission trends and the global trajectory toward meeting the Paris Agreement targets.

Linda Kalcher, Executive Director of Strategic Perspectives, underscored that the EU must step up its efforts in response to shifting U.S. climate policies.

“The EU is one of the most reliable partners on climate finance for developing countries, but it cannot hide from the moment,” Ms. Kalcher noted.

Li Shuo, Director of China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, described COP29 as a test of multilateralism.

“I’m not worried about whether multilateralism will prevail. I know it will,” said Li Shuo. “But in light of the U.S. election outcome, China and the EU will have to take a leadership role. Financial commitments and action on loss and damage are critical to keeping the global economy afloat.”

India’s approach at COP29, while moderate in terms of attendance and scale, is grounded in a commitment to pragmatic climate action, focusing on accountability, fair financing, and incremental goals for its developing economy.

India’s COP29 strategy is expected to challenge developed nations on the gaps in fulfilling climate pledges and drive conversations toward more transparent, reliable climate finance.

A member of the All India Muslim Personal Law Board and Aishbagh Eidgah Imam Maulana Khalid Rasheed Farangi Mahali along with Madarsa students celebrate and welcome the Supreme Court’s decision on the Uttar Pradesh Board of Madrasa Education Act 2004, in Lucknow on Tuesday, November 5.
| Photo Credit: ANI

After the Supreme Court declared higher education degrees awarded by the Uttar Pradesh Madrasa Board unconstitutional, there is a demand to accommodate the about 25,000 students who are currently pursing these courses in any other recognised university.

The state government has also said it will find a way out after considering all the legal aspects of this matter.

In an order on November 5, the Supreme Court declared the Kamil and Fazil degrees, equivalent to graduation and post-graduation degrees. awarded by the Uttar Pradesh Madrasa Board Board unconstitutional, saying it was in conflict with the University Grants Commission (UGC) Act.

Kamil and Fazil degrees declared unconstitutional

Zaman Khan, the General Secretary of the Teachers Association Madaris Arabia Uttar Pradesh, said the court’s decision has created a difficult situation for the thousands of current students as the board will not be able to conduct exams for these courses now.

“The order of the Supreme Court is supreme. But the government must find some way to deal with the situation that has arisen so that the future of the students studying in the Kamil and Fazil courses of the Madrasa Board does not remain dark,” he told PTI said on Sunday (November 10, 2024).

Minority Welfare Minister Om Prakash Rajbhar said the government will definitely find a way out by studying the SC order and discussing its various legal aspects.

On the question of whether the students studying in the Madrasa Board’s Kamil and Fazil courses will be linked to any other university, the minister said, “All aspects will be considered and only after that the government will take any decision.” Madrasa Board Registrar R P Singh said about 25,000 students are studying in the Kamil and Fazil courses run by the board currently, and whatever decision the government takes will be followed.

Meanwhile, former Madrasa Board member Qamar Ali said that the Board’s Kamil degree had the status of graduation and Fazil degree had the status of post-graduation, but even earlier they were not recognised for appearing in competitive examinations.

These degree-holders would get jobs only in madrasas which has also ended after the Supreme Court order, he said, demanding the current students be given a chance in recognised universities.

The Madrasa Board had earlier given a proposal to the government to accommodate the students of its Kamil and Fazil courses in the Lucknow-based ‘Khwaja Moinuddin Chishti Urdu-Arabic-Persian University’ but no decision was taken on it, he said.

Confusion regarding affiliation

It is not clear from the order that from when these degrees will be considered unconstitutional, but the government should take steps to affiliate these students with a UGC-recognised university, he said.

There are about 25,000 madrassas in Uttar Pradesh — 16,500 recognised by the State Madrasa Board and 8,500 unrecognized. A total of 560 of them receive grants from the state government.

In its order on October 5, the SC upheld the constitutional validity of the Uttar Pradesh Madrasa Education Board Act, 2004, overturning an Allahabad High Court order of March 2024 which declared it unconstitutional.

However, the SC declared the provisions pertaining to higher education (Kamil and Fazil degrees) were unconstitutional (meaning the Madrasa Board cannot offer these degrees) as they are in conflict with University Grant Commission (UGC) Act.

“The UGC Act governs the standards for higher education and a state legislation cannot seek to regulate higher education, in contravention of the provisions of the UGC Act,” it said.

Image used for representative purpose only
| Photo Credit: Nissar Ahmad

A second encounter broke out between hiding militants and security forces in Jammu’s Kishtwar area on Sunday (November 10, 2024). Intial reports suggested that a group of militants was tracked by security forces in Chaas area of Kishtwar district in the Jammu region.

Officials said an exchange of fire was reported from the spot. “The operation to flush out militants is on in the area,” officials said.

Srinagar encounter

On Sunday (November 10, 2024) morning, an intense gunfight erupted on the outskirts of Srinagar after a group of hiding militants were encircled by security forces in a forest area.

An official said the hiding militants opened fire at the security forces after a contact was established during a search operation.

VDGs killed in Kuntwara

Two civilians, also working as Village Defence Guards (VDGs), were kidnapped and killed by suspected militants in Jammu’s Kishtwar district on Thursday (November 7, 2024). Meanwhile, security forces have encircled a group of militants in north Kashmir’s Sopore.  

The picture of the victims was posted purportedly by the Kashmir Tigers, believed to be an offshoot of the Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM), on social media handles.

Police have registered a case against five members of a poll flying squad, including two constables, for allegedly extorting ₹85,000 from a flower merchant after threatening him in Maharashtra’s Thane district, an official said on Sunday (November 10, 2024).

The incident took place on October 18 at Mharal Naka here.

The accused violated the model code of conduct, in place for the November 20 state assembly polls, stated the FIR.

The flower businessman and his friend were on their way to Ahmednagar and Pune in a car and carrying ₹7.5 lakh for making payments to farmers for purchases made during the Dussehra festival, the official from Ulhasnagar police station said.

The accused intercepted the car when it was proceeding towards Murbad and threatened the duo that their money will be seized, and a case will be registered against them.

They allegedly extorted ₹85,000 from the flower merchant, the official said.

The accused did not inform their seniors about the money found with the flower businessman, and also did not follow the set procedure for the raid and seizure, he said.

After the probe and a complaint by a poll official, the Ulhasnagar police on Saturday (November 9, 2024) registered a case against the five accused under Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita sections 308(2) (extortion), 198 (public servant disobeying the law, with intent to cause injury to any person), 134 (assault or criminal force in an attempt to commit theft of property carried by a person) and 3(5) (criminal act done by several persons in furtherance of the common intention of all), he said.