Between the financial year (FY) 2022-23, overall energy sales in Karnataka went up by 22.7%, the highest growth over a decade. Based on previous sales, consumption and other drivers the peak demand in the State is expected to cross 33,000 Megwatts (MW) by 2034-35, according to a report titled ‘Resource Adequacy of Karnataka’ submitted by the Power Corporation of Karnataka Limited (PCKL) to the State government recently.
With monsoons failing 2023-24, the State had a record peak demand (over 17,000 Megawatts) and faced a power crunch for over a month. The officials from the Energy Department attribute this to be one of the reasons for a growth in energy sales in 2023-24.
“There were two reasons why our sales went up in 2023-24 – one was economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic and the other was due to the low rainfall which led to increased consumption. The electricity demand for irrigation pump sets and other devices went up. When compared to the previous year, this year (2024-25) we might not see as much growth in sales as there has been good rainfall,” Gaurav Gupta, Additional Chief Secretary, Energy Department, told The Hindu.
With such unpredictable patterns, the Energy Department decided to conduct a resource assessment. The report was prepared by Power Research and Development Consultants Pvt. Ltd., a consulting firm and was accepted by the State government on October 16.
The report considered the impact of open access, distributed energy resources, demand response, Electric Vehicles (EV), tariff signals, specific energy consumption, energy efficiency measures and impact of econometric parameters to create demand projections. The report also subtracts solar rooftop generated power, whose capacity is projected to touch 1,468 MW by 2034-35, from the total energy sales. The long-term forecasting study for the State has been performed for three agricultural scenarios – average rainfall, high rainfall and low rainfall.
Based on the average rainfall scenario, the peak demand for the ongoing year (2024-25) has been projected at 16,271 MW. The numbers are expected to gradually increase by 2034-35 to 33,310 MW. The penetration of EVs is expected to be one of the major drivers of demand in the State. The projections show that the energy consumption of EVs will jump from 638 Million Units (MU) in 2024-25 to 22,705 MU in 2034-35.
“In terms of power availability, one should always keep a margin of 20%-30%. After last year, we have realised that for a poor monsoon year, we need to have a higher power reserve. This report will help us take up resource adequacy measures in the coming years with regard to how we equip our generation and transmission systems. We are anyway geared up for it now,” Mr. Gupta said about the intent behind the report.
Recommendations
Among the many recommendations given by the report addition of capacity is one of the major ones. It recommends that along with a firm capacity or thermal equivalent of 8,496 MW proposed by PCKL, 1,970 MW proposed by KPCL and an additional 3,000 MW should be contracted over the next 11 years. The report also stresses the addition of Renewable Energy Capacity and energy storage.
The report will now be submitted to the Central Electricity Authority for validation and then to the Karnataka Electricity Regulatory Commission (KERC) for approval.
Published – November 09, 2024 08:41 pm IST