Channapatna defeat casts shadow on JD(S) and career of Nikhil

JD(S) supporters shouting slogans near the counting centre in Ramanagara on Saturday.
| Photo Credit: K. BHAGYA PRAKASH

The last bastion of the Janata Dal (Secular) in Ramanagara district, a key area in the Vokkaliga heartland politics, has been breached by the Congress with a resounding victory of its candidate C.P. Yogeshwar in Channapatna constituency. The loss by over 26,000 votes in its stronghold has not only stunned the JD(S) but has also brought gloom to the fledgling political career of Nikhil Kumaraswamy, who with the defeat in Channapatna on Saturday has hit an undesirable “hat trick of defeats”.

Drawing an analogy from the Mahabharata, the JD(S) had compared 36-year-old Mr. Nikhil Kumaraswamy to Abhimanyu caught in the ‘Chakravyuha’ due to deceit and conspiracies. They had pinned hopes on him emerging victorious in his third electoral outing, but that was not to be as the Channapatna results reveal. The defeat has put a question mark over the political future of the actor-turned-politician, though he said on Saturday that the loss would not deter his political ambitions.

Probable reasons

Though the JD(S), which saw an erosion of voter base as well as seats in its traditional strongholds during the 2023 Assembly elections, is yet to assess the reason for the debacle, the regional party in its initial assessment believes that consolidation of Muslim votes along with electors from the Scheduled Castes and backward classes favouring the Congress hurt its prospects. Party sources acknowledged that a perception among the backward communities that Chief Minister Siddaramaiah could be replaced in case of a Congress defeat consolidated the community votes. On the other hand, the JD(S) joining BJP-led NDA drove away Muslims votes.

A high dependence on the Vokkaliga vote bank hurt the party, as another source pointed out that the party failed to assess an alternative to Muslim votes to boost numbers, while the Vokkaliga votes split. The active participation of the entire JD(S) machinery and leaders from the backward classes and Scheduled Castes in the BJP during the electioneering did not bring votes to the party.

In fact, in an election where the turnout increased by nearly 3% to 88.81%, the number of votes polled by Mr. Nikhil Kumaraswamy in absolute terms came down to 87,229 in comparison with 96,592 polled by his father, H.D. Kumaraswamy, current Union Minister, in 2023. In comparison, Mr. Yogeshwar’s vote share went up from 80,667 in 2023 to 1,12,642 in the byelection.

Shedding of tears by Mr. Nikhil Kumaraswamy, visible all along the campaign, could not sway the voters, though it became an intense talking point. The uncharitable remarks of Housing Minister B.Z. Zameer Ahmed Khan on Mr. Kumaraswamy’s skin colour did not hurt the Congress’s chances. Mr. Yogeshwar’s decision to shift party loyalties at the last moment did not affect him either. Over the months, 13 local JD(S) councillors defected to the Congress.

Did transfer of votes happen?

According to a JD(S) source, it is yet to assess if the BJP managed to transfer its votes from whatever little presence it has in the constituency. After a drubbing that the Congress received in the Old Mysore region in the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year, it has managed to redeem itself with a win in Channapatna.

At stake in the intensely fought election was the prestige and leadership of two warring Vokkaliga leaders — Deputy Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar and Mr. Kumaraswamy, both fighting for the leadership role in the Vokkaliga community. Many among the Congress workers see the Channapatna results as settling the leadership issue, though the JD(S) believes the setback is temporary.

Gowda’s role

The repeated attack on Mr. Siddaramaiah by the nonagenarian former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda, who campaigned for his grandson despite his advanced age, has also been seen as a factor that brought the backward classes together. While the Vokkaligas — even among the Congress cadre — acknowledge Mr. Gowda as the towering leader, they see him promoting his family as diminishing his appeal. Mr. Gowda’s popularity, however, could not ensure his grandson’s victory in the district that gave him political rebirth in 1994 when he won from the neighbouring Ramanagara constituency to become the Chief Minister.