Polling officials at a counting center amid the counting of votes for the Jharkhand Assembly elections, in Dhanbad.
| Photo Credit: PTI
With the INDIA bloc recording increases in vote shares across all types of seats — reserved for STs, SCs and general — the alliance is currently ahead of the NDA coalition in the 2024 Jharkhand Assembly elections. While the NDA too managed to increase its vote share in non-reserved seats, their vote share either stagnated or only marginally increased in the reserved seats, proving to be the difference.
In the seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes (STs), the JMM-led India bloc is leading in all but one of the 28 seats.
The conclusions are based on the 45% of the votes counted in the State. The story will be updated later when more votes are counted.
The INDIA bloc’s vote share in seats reserved for STs rose to 51.1%, an increase of 8.1 percentage points compared with the 2019 Assembly elections. In contrast, the NDA’s vote share increased only by 0.4 percentage points in these seats. The vote share of parties which were not in both the allainces took a beating, decreasing by about 8.5 percentage points in the seats reserved for STs compared with the 2019 polls.
One of the major reasons behind the drop in the other parties’ vote share in the 2024 polls, is the dissolution of Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik), which had secured 5.5% votes in 2019, before merging with the BJP in 2020.
Table 1 shows the vote share secured (in %) by alliances across seat-types in the 2024 polls and the change from 2019 polls (in percentage points)
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Notably, in seats reserved for SCs — considered to be INDIA bloc’s weak area — the allaince has improved its vote share the most by over 11 percentage points compared with 2019.
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In the seats reserved for SCs, the NDA’s vote share has only marginally increased (less than 1 percentage point) in 2024 Assembly polls compared with the 2019 polls.
Table 2 shows the seats led (in absolute numbers) by alliances across seat-types in the 2024 elections and the change from 2019 polls (in absolute numbers)
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In seats reserved for STs, the INDIA bloc is leading in 27 seats, compared to just one by the NDA alliance. There are in total 28 seats reserved for STs.
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In seats reserved for SCs, the INDIA bloc is leading in five seats, one more than that of the NDA.
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In General seats, the INDIA bloc is leading in 25 seats, compared to 18 led by the NDA.
Among seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes across regions
Among the five regions of Jharkhand — Kolhan, North Chotanagpur, Palamu, Santhal Parganas, and South Chotanagpur — the first and the last are dominated by seats reserved for STs. In Kolhan 64% of seats are reserved for STs, 73% in South Chotanagpur, and 39% in Santhal Pargana.
The JMM-led INDIA bloc has managed to lead in all but one seats reserved for STs across regions.
Table 3 shows the region-wise split of constituencies led (in absolute numbers) by alliances across seats reserved for STs in the 2024 elections and the change from the 2019 polls (in absolute numbers)
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The INDIA bloc is leading in all the eleven ST reserved seats in South Chotanagpur. In the Santhal Pargana region too the INDIA bloc is leading in all seats reserved for STs.
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In the Kolhan region, it is trailing in one ST seat, leading in eight others.
Table 4 shows the vote share secured (in %) by alliances across seats reserved for STs in the 2024 elections and the change from the 2019 polls (in % points)
Observations from the table:
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Among the ST seats in South Chotanagpur, over 51% votes was secured by the INDIA bloc.
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Among the ST seats in Santhal Pargana, close to 55% of the votes went for the alliance.
An earlier analysis based on the 2024 Lok Sabha polls showed that the NDA was gaining in the Kolhan region and the INDIA bloc’s vote share was stagnant. The INDIA bloc has reversed this trend in the 2024 Assembly polls.
Published – November 23, 2024 03:42 pm IST